Your letters for Oct. 18, 2024
By NewsPress Now
Coal-power capacity
China has led a surge in coal-power capacity, the world’s total to a record high in 2020, primarily fueled by new plants in China, accounted for about two-thirds of the expansion, with Indonesia and India following closely behind.
The current state of coal consumption: The coal fleet expanded by 2% to 2,130 gigawatts, prominent in China, where the country initiated the construction of 70 gigawatts of new coal plants in 2020. That is nearly 20x more than the rest of the world combined.
Global coal plant tracker 2021: The world’s 1,000 largest coal plants, the country’s aggressive expansion of coal-power capacity is a stark contrast to the trend of retiring coal plants in many developed countries, such as the United States and the European Union, coal-power capacity has significant implications for global energy markets and climate policy initiatives. According to Global Energy Monitor, about as many countries opened new coal plant units as shut units down in 2023. Yet overall, more capacity is added than retired.
China accounted for about two thirds of new coal capacity last year! Global operating coal capacity grew by 2% in 2023, with China driving two-thirds. China takes immediate action to ensure it meets its target of shutting down 30 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity by 2025, and countries with plans for new coal plants must ensure these are never built. Paris Agreement as all signs point to reversing course from this accelerated expansion. GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker identifies every new unit proposed since January 1, 2010 (30 MW and larger). The IEA: Global coal demand is predicted to decline by 2.3% in 2026 compared to 2023 levels.
More than half of the global renewable capacity expansion is set to occur in China, which currently accounts for over half of the world’s demand for coal. As a result, Chinese coal demand is expected to fall in 2024 and plateau through 2026. The shift in coal demand and production to Asia is accelerating, with China, India, and Southeast Asia set to account for three-quarters of global consumption in 2023, Consumption in Southeast Asia is expected to exceed that of the U.S. and the EU in 2023.
The three largest coal producers globally — Indonesia, China, and India — are expected to break production records in 2023, keeping with Paris Agreement goals. Relentless coal use would need to a fall much more quickly. The report further highlights a significant shift in global leadership regarding coal policies, particularly within the G7 and G20 nations. The G7 countries, which accounted for 23% of the world’s operating coal capacity in 2015, have reduced their share to 15% in 2023. The G20 nations hold 92% of the world’s operating coal capacity, with Brazil the current G20 chair. In 2023, while 69.5 GW of coal power capacity was added, only 21.1 GW was retired, leading to a net increase in global coal capacity.
This trend is particularly pronounced outside of China, where new proposals totaled 20.9 GW, led by countries like India, Kazakhstan and Indonesia. This ongoing activity suggests that while the global momentum is towards reducing coal dependency, achieving this goal requires concerted efforts across all nations, particularly those with significant new proposals.
DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook series says: We explore how fast China will reduce emissions and transition to an energy system dominated by solar and wind — and what it means for the rest of the world. China is responsible for 33% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions today, but this will reduce to 22% by 2050. China’s power mix shifts from 30% renewable today to 88% by 2050. Solar makes up 5% of power generation in China today — this will rise to 38% by 2050. Oil consumption only halves by 2050 from its 2027 peak, while natural gas peaks in the 2030s before returning to today’s levels by mid-century.
Coal plant leaders: Total 16,428
Africa-67, Argentina-61, Brazil-879, Canada-205, Chile-52, Mexico-74, U.S.A-1138, China-5080, India-649, Japan-164, Pakistan-34, Turkiye-324, Vietnam-113, Austria-124, Belgium-103, Denmark-132, Finland-144, France-1285, Germany-2027, Greece-204, Ireland-132, Italy-343, Netherland-175, Poland-245, Portugal-200, Spain-977, Sweden-253, U.K.-453, Australia-110.
Ben Pecora
St. Joseph
