What are the odds of a white Christmas?
By Jared Shelton News-Press NOW meteorologist
Winter snowfall gets mixed reviews from most Americans. Some enjoy a blanket of white while others cringe at the idea of even a chance of snow in the forecast.
When snow comes down on Christmas, the novelty factor tends to run a bit higher for many. After all, a winter wonderland doesn’t sound so bad when coupled with glimmering lights and the tale of Santa Claus, who conveniently delivers gifts via sleigh.
Within a week or so of Christmas day, forecasters are typically able to present a good idea of who likely will have snow on the ground. This could be snow left from recent events or a fresh coating of white falling on the holiday itself. Most meteorologists, and more importantly NOAA, define a “white Christmas” as the presence of 1 inch or more of snow on the ground. Even if the flakes are flying and most surfaces are covered with a dusting of white, less than an inch just doesn’t cut it for the experts.
Several weeks or months before the holiday, climatology is the best method to determine who has the greatest odds of seeing a white Christmas. Climate data from 1991 to 2020 is the golden standard for NOAA’s official white Christmas climatology map, presenting probabilistic outcomes based on the most recent 30-year period of carefully procured data.
According to NOAA’s product, far northern Missouri from roughly the Highway 36 corridor to the Iowa border, has a 26% to 30% chance of seeing a white Christmas in any given year. Most of the Show Me state has lesser chances based on climate data, including Kansas City, where the figures fall closer to 20% or less for most of the metro.
Now that Christmas is less than two weeks away, climatology holds less weight than large-scale weather patterns when it comes to forecasting snow. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s extended outlook, broad ridging in the mid to upper atmosphere is likely to result in above-average temperatures Dec. 18 through 25 across the western half of the U.S. and parts of the Midwest, including the Mid-Missouri River Valley. This trend suggests a white Christmas is unlikely for Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas, although it’s not impossible at this point.
