Goodbye fall, hello winter
By Jared Shelton News-Press NOW meteorologist
Thanksgiving 2024 felt more like winter than late fall across the Mid-Missouri River Valley, as polar air kept the temperature in the 30s for most of the holiday. While several degrees below average, this was far from the coldest turkey day in St. Joseph, with a range of temperatures on record dating back to the late 1800s.
The warmest Thanksgiving in St. Joseph was in 2012 with a balmy high of 72 degrees, and the coldest reaching a maximum temperature of only 23 degrees in 1919. All things considered, this year’s holiday was nothing special aside from the slight cold bias, a nearly 10-degree departure from the average high in the upper 40s.
November’s final days not only include Thanksgiving, but they also mark the end of meteorological fall, which starts on Sept. 1 and ends on Nov. 30. Distinct from astronomical seasons that follow solstices and equinoxes, meteorological seasons are set in three-month intervals that more closely align with changes in weather and make for cleaner climate stats.
Now that fall is nearly finished, it’s only natural to look back at the numbers and get an idea of overall trends from the past three months. Not surprisingly, St. Joseph ran on the warm side as high temperatures for 52 of the past 90 days were above average by at least five degrees or more. For reference, that’s about 58% of the season as a whole.
Considering a “normal” year would have roughly 50% above average and 50% below, this fall’s warm bias was not exactly astronomical but prevalent nonetheless. A few more numbers tell a similar story, with one record-setting day of heat in early October followed up by a record-tying day about a week later. For good measure, there was also an instance of near-record cold, when a record-low was tied, also in October. That’s a testament to the atmosphere’s balancing act, as what goes up must come down.
Records are not in jeopardy for the first few days of meteorological winter, although conditions will remain well below average a few days into the new season. As fate would have it, a bump towards the warmer side will arrive before the first week of December is over, as the jet stream accounts for the recent chill by surging northward for at least a few days.
