From drought conditions to flood concerns
By Jared Shelton News-Press NOW meteorologist
Sporadic rainfall deficits have spurred ongoing periods of drought across Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas for the past several years.
According to the U.S. drought monitor, most of the Show Me state north of the Missouri River was under abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions to start the year. As of today, not much has changed aside from a few areas of local improvement, mainly along and south of the Highway 36 corridor where recent thunderstorm activity has dumped one to three inches of needed rainfall during the past week.
Even with the recent rains, most of Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas are still a bit thirsty going into the growing season, with more areas than not dealing with some degree of drought.
But the next five days could change the narrative completely, as a potent spring storm system is forecast to cross the Central Plains in slow motion this weekend. Aside from a threat of severe weather, this system also will bring the potential for multiple rounds of region-wide thunderstorm activity.
For most, the prospect of drought-busting rains is welcome news. However, the meteorological nature of this approaching rainfall event could bring too much of a good thing.
That’s right, precipitation over the coming days could be enough to swing the pendulum from drought to flood. Two main factors make this a possibility with the approaching system: the slow speed of its movement and deep moisture availability.
Rather than passing through over 24 hours or so, the initial front is forecast to stall over the Central Plains for several days. During this period, multiple waves of low pressure are anticipated to develop and ride along the stalled frontal boundary. Copious amounts of gulf moisture will be streaming inland from the south, delivering plenty of juice for waves of low pressure to tap into. This combination will bring a fair likelihood for several rounds of robust thunderstorm activity, producing efficient rainfall rates over similar areas over a few days.
At this point, there is confidence that portions of the Midwest and Great Plains will be in for a deluge in the coming days, but exactly who will get enough rain to cause problems is yet to be determined. The inherent chaos of thunderstorm development and the remaining uncertainty of the system’s exact track will make all the difference when it comes to who receives flooding rain and who gets just enough to bust the drought. With a bit of luck, St. Joseph will fall in the latter category.
