Home sales data gives hope for momentum in future despite low inventory

By Cameron Montemayor

A surge in home sales nationwide in February is raising hopes for potential housing market momentum in St. Joseph despite mixed data locally and continued issues with low home inventory.

The National Association of Realtors reported the amount of homes sold in February across the U.S. was the largest monthly increase in a year. In the Midwest, home sales surged more than 8% from a month earlier. The development comes after 2023 saw the worst year for home sales across the U.S. since 1995, a product of surging mortgage rates, low inventory and rising home prices.

“Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen some extremes in the housing market,” said Ed Stroud, president and CEO of Stroud and Associates Brokered by Real. 

Across the St. Joseph Chapter of the KC Regional Association of Realtors, which includes Buchanan, Andrew and surrounding counties, home sales dropped 3% in both January and February compared to 2023. The median price for a home increased as well.

“Here in Buchanan County we showed an actual 8% home sale decrease … so sometimes we don’t catch up as fast as what’s going on East Coast, West Coast and things take a little longer,” Stroud said.

In January 2022, the average home price in the St. Joseph chapter was $176,263. As of February 2024, that figured had increased to $193,861, a 10% price increase.

It’s not uncommon for local realtors to see multiple offers come in for a home well above the asking price, a sign of rising demand for a desired home when one does go on the market. Homes that are priced and showing well are going fast now with limited inventory.

“I feel like there has been a pent up buyer’s market happening at least over the last 6 to 10 months, largely due to those higher interest rates that we saw last year,” said Amy Voltz, relator with Keller Williams Realty in St. Joseph. “So buyers are still wanting to buy properties.”

As interest rates remain steady and mortgage rates gradually decline, prospective homebuyers and sellers are adjusting to current market conditions and appearing more willing to take the leap. 

“I think people are saying if it’s truly important to them, they’re going to come buy a house or they’re going to sell their house and look for an upgrade or downgrade, whatever they’re looking for,” Stroud said.

But low inventory of homes is one key area that is still holding back the St. Joseph housing market from shifting to a buyer’s market.

“We’ve got a 1.4 month supply, which truly is a huge seller’s market. That means the sellers in control, right? If we were at six months supply, five or six months, I would say it’s an even market,” he said.

In a sign of life, Voltz said pending home sales, a key statistic that helps forecast future home sales activity, increased significantly across the St. Joseph chapter in February compared to the same period last year.

“We’re 29% above this time last year in our pending sales, which means our existing sales will look even better going into the spring market,” Voltz said. “We’ve definitely seen a pickup in our local St. Joseph market just in 2024.”

Voltz is optimistic about the outlook of home inventory growth in the coming year and has seen gradual improvement in that area locally. Overall, the U.S. saw a 10% increase in the number of homes available for sale at the end of February compared to 2023. 

“With these pending sales improving and our inventory starting to slowly improve, I think we will see that carry us through the spring and summer market,” Voltz said. “And I look for inventory to increase greatly over that time.”