How many points has Wichita State’s top-ranked free-throw defense saved this season?

By Taylor Eldridge – The Wichita Eagle (TNS)

Dec. 26—The Wichita State men’s basketball team is the best in the country at something it seemingly has no control over.

No team can boast a better free-throw defense through Christmas than the Shockers, who rank No. 1 nationally with opponents shooting just 58.2% at the foul line this season.

A 2015 study by statistician Ken Pomeroy concluded teams have a “modicum” of control over their free throw defense, but it mostly comes down to luck.

So how much luck has there been in WSU’s No. 1 ranking entering Sunday’s 5 p.m. nonconference finale against Friends at Koch Arena? A pretty good amount. For reference, the next closest team to WSU is a full 3 percentage points behind the Shockers and the lowest record opponent free-throw percentage in a season for the past decade has been 61.5% by Prairie View A&M (2020-21) and UCF (2014-15).

For starters, the average NCAA Division I team shoots 71.5% at the line — a full 13 percentage points better than WSU opponents so far this season. It’s also true that nine of WSU’s 12 opponents have shot below their season average in their game against the Shockers. The most egregious was Monmouth, a team that has made 77% of its free throws in other games but shot a miserable 6-for-18 from the charity stripe in a Nov. 18 loss at Koch Arena.

But the Shockers have also played their fair share of teams who have struggled from the line this season. The four teams who rank in the bottom-55 of the country — Kansas State (No. 310), Minnesota (No. 320), Saint Louis (No. 342) and East Tennessee State (No. 359) — reliably clanked away for a combined 50.8% (33 of 65) mark against WSU.

While the Shockers can’t very well control what opponents do once they arrive at the foul line, what WSU can control is how many chances at freebies it allows. And the Shockers are one of the nation’s best at limiting fouls, as the team’s 25.1% free throw rate is 25th-best in the country. Only 13% of opponent points are generated at the foul line, which is the sixth-fewest in the country.

To uncover a clearer view of WSU’s defensive free throw luck, The Eagle conducted a review of the 47 opposing players who have combined to make 58.2% (114 of 196) of their free throws against the Shockers this season. For the rest of the season, those same 47 players have combined to shoot 67.8% (881 of 1,300) from the foul line this season — a nearly 10% bump.

The review showed that 28 of the 47 players shot worse than their season average against WSU. The most notable offenders included Saint Louis’ Kellen Thames, who has made 11 of 12 free throws besides the 2-for-7 performance against the Shockers, Western Kentucky’s Babacar Faye, who has shot 86% at the line besides a 10-of-16 showing against WSU, and Monmouth’s Madison Durr, who has connected on 84% from the charity stripe outside of a 5-of-12 game against WSU.

Besides being a quirky stat, the significant lack of shot-making at the foul line by opponents has left an estimated 19 points on the table spread across 12 games against the Shockers. A missed point or two might not matter in a 40-minute game, but add them all up over the course of 12 games and those missing points have helped WSU’s defense check in at 1.02 points per possession, a top-100 efficiency mark in the country.

It’s incredibly unlikely WSU will keep up its luck of opponents bricking so many free throws. To demonstrate just how much of an outlier the start of this season has been, look no further than the previous 10 seasons where WSU’s free-throw defense has finished between 68.7% and 72.9% — roughly a 4-percentage-point window.

The American Athletic Conference is also a generally good free throw shooting conference with all but two teams essentially at the national average or better. And even the poor shooting teams, Rice (No. 267) and Tulsa (No. 282), aren’t as poor as some of the teams WSU has faced already.

The good news is that even if WSU sees an uptick in opponent free-throw percentage, it shouldn’t have a significant impact on the team’s defensive efficiency if the Shockers can continue to limit their foul count.

This story was originally published December 26, 2024, 4:33 PM.

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