Florida’s special elections give Trump, GOP leaders more reasons to sweat slim House majority

By Steve Contorno, CNN

(CNN) — In a buoyant address to supporters moments after taking the oath of office in January, President Donald Trump ribbed House Speaker Mike Johnson over the number of Republican lawmakers he had tapped for administration posts — vacancies that only tightened the GOP’s already slender majority.

“He didn’t mind,” Trump teased, as Johnson played along, pantomiming frustration to laughter from the crowd. “He could handle it.”

But two months later, Trump’s levity has given way to unease. “We have a slim margin. We don’t want to take any chances. We don’t want to experiment,” he said Friday when explaining why his team abruptly pulled the nomination of one of those representatives, Elise Stefanik of New York, to be United Nations ambassador.

Stefanik’s sudden demotion back to Congress comes as Republicans are also sweating a pair of special elections Tuesday in Florida to fill seats vacated by two more House members previously tapped by Trump.

One race in the state’s 6th Congressional District is to replace national security adviser Michael Waltz — who has become a focal point of White House frustration over his role initiating a Signal chat, accidentally including a reporter, where top administration officials discussed sensitive plans to strike Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Tuesday’s other winner will succeed former Rep. Matt Gaetz, whom Trump picked to be his attorney general before allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use levied by a House ethics panel derailed his nomination. Gaetz, who denied the allegations but nevertheless withdrew himself from consideration, represented Florida’s 1st Congressional District.

While Trump carried both Florida districts by more than 30 points in November, Republicans have lately expressed some alarm, particularly in Waltz’s former seat on the state’s eastern coast. There, Democrat Josh Weil has outraised the Trump-backed GOP nominee, outgoing state Sen. Randy Fine, 10-to-1, a disparity that sent shockwaves from Florida to Washington when first reported in federal campaign finance filings earlier this month.

Republican leaders grew so alarmed by Fine’s seemingly lackluster campaign that some intervened. A top Trump adviser recently confronted Fine about the need to step up his effort, and House GOP campaign chief Richard Hudson and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer each separately told Fine to “get his sh*t together,” CNN reported last week.

Hanging in the balance Tuesday night is the future of Trump’s agenda — which already faces a difficult road through the House, where Republicans have a 218-213 edge over Democrats, with four vacancies, and delicate negotiations in the Senate. A defeat in Florida — while incredibly unlikely, both parties privately agree — would send nervous Republicans into full-blown panic.

But even a favorable outcome that delivers Johnson the expected reinforcements may not fully alleviate GOP apprehension. A narrower-than-anticipated victory in a deeply Republican part of Florida could signal early voter rejection of Trump’s second term and provide a boost to a Democratic Party still reeling from its defeats.

In their scramble to temper expectations Tuesday, Republicans have pointed the finger squarely at Fine. Weil has outraised Fine by about $9.5 million to about $1 million and outspent him by about $8.2 million to just $895,000. Fine — who has a history of local controversies and was ordered by a judge last October to undergo anger management counseling — reported only $93,000 in cash as of March 13 on his preelection Federal Election Commission filing. He recently loaned his campaign $400,000.

“There’s a lot of frustration. From my perspective, he was already operating as if he were a member of Congress because it’s such a safe district,” a GOP operative told CNN. “I think it goes to show, no matter what district you’re in, Democrat or Republican, you can’t take things for granted.”

Republicans ultimately remain upbeat about their odds of holding both Florida seats. Notably, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not invested in either Florida special election, a reflection of the narrow path to victory for their candidates. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently made token contributions to Weil and Gay Valiant, the Democrat facing Republican Jimmy Patronis in the race to replace Gaetz, but he stopped well short of predicting his party would notch a win in the state on Tuesday.

“What I can say, almost guarantee, is that the Democratic candidate in both of these Florida special elections will significantly overperform, which will represent another sign that the Republicans are on the run and that Democrats are going to take back control of the House of Representatives next year,” Jeffries said at a news conference last week.

The headache initiated by creating a handful of House vacancies is one Republicans should have anticipated. Johnson has strained to govern his caucus since he ascended to the speakership in 2023, and though Republicans maintained the majority in November, Democrats narrowed the gap to just a handful of votes.

When Trump began naming House Republicans to top posts in his administration in November, a half-joking Johnson said he had “begged and pleaded with the new president, ‘Enough already,’” but also insisted the two remained closely aligned on the path forward.

“He’s very aware of the of the size of the margin,” Johnson said at the time, “but he has an administration to fill, a Cabinet to fill and he’s keeping all this in mind at the same time.”

But the combination of a razor-thin House margin and the historical headwinds facing the party in power has become an increasingly urgent concern for Republican leaders.

By pulling Stefanik’s nomination, Republicans are avoiding having to repeat these trepidations in a special election for her seat in a much more challenging state for their party. Stefanik — who had spent months preparing for the new assignment, parted with her staff and delivered goodbye messages to supporters — said the decision came in response to concern that New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, might delay the election date to block Republicans from having another vote in Congress.

“This is about stepping up as a team, and I am doing that as a leader, to ensure that we can take hold of this mandate and deliver these historic results,” Stefanik told Fox News on Thursday.

Republican strategist and CNN commentator Scott Jennings said the political strategy is “absolutely correct” given how Democrats have outperformed Republicans in special elections lately when Trump isn’t on the ballot.

“At least we’ll win easily when she runs for reelection next year,” Jennings said on CNN’s “NewsNight.”

But Democratic adviser Neera Tanden, appearing alongside Jennings, said the trepidations expressed by the White House in districts Trump overwhelmingly carried in November signal a much deeper concern about the country’s response to his first two months in office.

“The fact that they’re basically making (Stefanik) do this career face-plant,” Tanden said, “which is really harsh to her, in order to save this one seat that just a few months ago they thought was going to be easy breezy, that’s telling us the ground has really shifted.”

CNN’s Annie Grayer contributed to this report.

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