LOCALIZE IT: Analysis finds US cities in states won by Trump would be most hurt by Canadian tariffs
EDITORS/NEWS DIRECTORS:
The U.S. cities most vulnerable to a trade war with Canada turn out to largely be in the states that helped return Donald Trump to the White House — a sign of the possible political risk he’s taking with his tariff plans.
A new analysis released last week by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce detailed the areas most dependent on exports to Canada, with San Antonio and Detroit topping the list of 41 U.S. metro areas. The findings show that the United States’ 25% tariffs on Canada and Canada’s retaliations could inflict meaningful damage in key states for U.S. politics.
The analysis was conducted before the Republican president announced March 26 that he was placing additional 25% tariffs on imported autos and parts starting on April 3.
April 3 is also when a slate of additional, but unknown tariffs are expected to be announced, what Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day.”
Trump has placed 25% tariffs on many goods from Mexico and Canada, with a lower 10% tax on energy products and potash from Canada. Some of those tariffs have been suspended or delayed, though they’re set to fully hit in April.
Canadian leaders have warned that the United States would suffer in the form of higher prices, fewer jobs and slower growth because of the trade war. But an analysis by the Brookings Institution found that the economic pain would be more severe in Mexico and Canada because those countries are more reliant on the United States in terms of trade.
Trump’s stated reason for the tariffs is to stop illegal immigration and drug smuggling, though he’s also said that he dislikes the trade deficit with both countries and has taunted Canada by suggesting that it could become the 51st U.S. state.
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READ AP’S STORY
US cities located in states won by Trump would be most hurt by Canadian tariffs, an analysis finds
A Senate vote to reverse Trump’s tariffs on Canada tests Republican support
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SOME METRO AREAS MOST IMPACTED
Nearly half of what San Antonio exports, with its aerospace, auto and energy sectors, goes to Canada. About 40% of what the auto-driven Detroit area exports also goes to Canada. Trump’s wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were crucial for his overall victory in November’s presidential election — and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh also rank in the top 10 for exposure to a trade war with Canada.
Other cities most dependent on exports to Canada include Kansas City, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; Nashville, Tennessee; Columbus, Ohio; Chicago; and Cleveland. All of those states aside from Illinois backed Trump in the last election.
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FIND YOUR STATE AND METRO AREA:
The analysis offers several maps and charts. You can scroll through to view each one.
— State exports to Canada by percentage of GDP and how the state voted in the 2024 presidential election
— A list of U.S. cities most export dependent on Canada (or what percentage of a state’s exports go to Canada). The list names 41 locations.
— Farther down you can select one of the 41 cities from a dropdown menu to view specific stats.
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READ ADDITIONAL COVERAGE ON TARIFFS
Trump has begun another trade war. Here’s a timeline of how we got here
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Localize It is a reporting resource produced by The Associated Press for its customers’ use. Questions can be directed to Katie Oyan at koyan@ap.org.
