An ‘early spring’ is upon us
By Jared Shelton News-Press NOW meteorologist
On the second day of this month, a famous Pennsylvania Groundhog predicted an early start to the spring season. Despite a few exceptions over the past several weeks, it seems this was right on the money for many across the country, especially here in the Central Plains.
Long stretches of afternoon 50s and 60s have been fairly common here in Northwest Missouri for the past two to three weeks. Recent days have pushed the envelope even further as temperatures climbed to the upper 60s and low to mid-70s, tying a daily record high of 74 degrees here in St. Joseph on Wednesday afternoon.
Many have embraced the late winter warmth by spending time outdoors, as dry conditions have accompanied the mild temperatures — a perfect recipe for getting some fresh air.
News-Press NOW reporter Riley Funk chatted with St. Joseph locals Susan Cornelius and Kylea Shipers, both of whom were out enjoying the spring-like weather at Corby Park on Wednesday afternoon. When asked about the unseasonably warm weather, these leery Midwesterners were not convinced that Jack Frost was gone for good this season.
“I would predict we’d get one more pretty good-sized snow,” Cornelius said.
“We’re going to get snow. It’s inevitable. It’s Missouri. It’s going to happen,” Shipers said.
While snow is not in the forecast for at least the next five to seven days, the possibility of more significant snowfall this season is far from unfounded.
On average, the last day for an inch or more of fresh snow at Kansas City International Airport is March 8. This is the best estimate for the St. Joseph area as well, given the absence of snowfall records at Rosecrans Airport. Of course, every year varies when it comes to the last winter or spring snowfall, and recent memory proves it can arrive several weeks into April. One of the latest significant snowfall events here in Northwest Missouri took place in 2021, when several inches of snow came down across the region on April 20! KCI reported 3 and a half inches of snow, with 5 inches coming down in the St. Joseph area.
On the flip side, there have been years when the last winter snowfall arrived in mid-February. Although abnormal, this has been the case at least twice in the past decade and could very well happen again this year. Lingering effects of El Nino are forecast to keep temperatures running generally above normal across the northern tier of the U.S. well into the spring season. However, there are near equal chances for seeing temperatures above or below normal across the central U.S. through the month of March, per NOAA’s monthly outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center.
As witnessed last Friday, when a quick bout of accumulating snowfall dusted St. Joseph, it only takes a brief period of subfreezing temperatures and sufficient moisture to bring back a wintry scene.
