Post-Groundhog Day outlook: Phil got it right
Feb. 2, was Groundhog Day, a tradition many look forward to after enduring the harsh cold of winter. For more than a century, Punxsutawney Phil has been making his famous “weather predictions” from a small town in eastern Pennsylvania, adding a touch of fun and folklore to the winter season.
Punxsutawney Phil is not the only prognosticating groundhog on Feb. 2. In January, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a list of the 20 most “accurate” groundhogs, based on data collected since 2005. The top three have an accuracy rate of 75% or higher. First is Staten Island Chuck, who lives in New York and has an 85% accuracy rate. Second is General Beauregard Lee in Georgia, who is said to be 80% accurate. In third place is actually a statue that resides in Lander, Wyoming, with a reported accuracy rate of 75%.
Indeed, Groundhog Day is simply a fun tradition that keeps our hopes up for warmer weather. No matter the prediction, there are always six weeks until spring on the astronomical calendar. As Midwesterners know, winter weather is not dictated by calendar dates, occasionally showing up as late as April and even early May.
Last Sunday’s official prediction from Punxsutawney Phil did call for six more weeks of winter, and it looks to pan out that way over the next 6 to 10 days for much of the lower 48 states.
After a late-January thaw that melted snowpack and even brought a few small buds to certain deciduous trees, arctic air is forecast to return to America’s heartland next week. Several spells of below-average temperatures are likely through mid-February, as the upper-level pattern pushes the polar jet further south.
Less certain is the potential for accumulating snow over the coming weeks. The general pattern suggests waves of low pressure will spread wintry precipitation for parts of the Plains and Midwest starting next week. The exact track of next week’s low-pressure systems could leave the Mid-Missouri River Valley with a stretch of cold days and a few snow showers or another significant snowfall event. About 16 to 17 inches of snow have accumulated so far this winter in St. Joseph, almost 100% of our seasonal average of 18 inches. When the last flake falls, the 2024-2025 winter snowfall tally will likely be above average across Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas.
