Northwest Missouri is officially drought free
By Jared Shelton News-Press NOW meteorologist
Drought conditions across Northwest Missouri have been steadily declining over the past few months.
As of this week, the year-long drought brought on by persisting rainfall deficits officially has been busted locally, with every square mile of land north of the Missouri River back to baseline in terms of precipitation and soil moisture norms.
Other parts of the Show Me state also have seen massive drought improvements. In fact, 82% of Missouri is now completely drought-free, an impressive stat compared to the start of 2024 when that figure was just 6%.
Climatologically, late spring and early summer are the wettest periods here in the nation’s heartland, as showers and thunderstorms tend to sweep across the region in sporadic waves. An increase in Gulf of Mexico moisture paired with a progressive upper-level pattern annually provides the meteorological ingredients needed for steady bouts of wet weather, most common from late April through June and July across the Mid-Missouri River Valley.
While recent years have brought some beneficial rain through the first half of the warm season, periods of dry weather have become more common during this time. According to archives from the U.S. drought monitor, Northwest Missouri experienced rapid onset drought this time last year, with minimal rainfall deficits in early May of 2023 quickly leading to widespread moderate drought by mid-July.
Last year’s sudden dry-out was mainly due to a series of large-scale blocking patterns across the central U.S., as persistent ridges of high pressure suppressed thunderstorm activity and promoted above-normal temperatures. Hot and dry periods like those of last year can provide the perfect recipe for rapidly developing drought conditions, a phenomenon known as “flash drought.”
On a broad scale, the strong El Nino pattern that dominated much of 2023 contributed to dry spells across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest, keeping deep moisture focused across the southern tier of the U.S. while promoting large-scale ridging patterns further north.
As summer approaches, only time will tell if drought will redevelop locally over the coming months. With that being said, the next 30 days look promising when it comes to the chances of beneficial rainfall.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, above-average precipitation is probable through much of June from the mid-Atlantic, mid-south and Ohio Valley to points further west including the Central Plains and lower Missouri River Basin. It’s a favorable forecast for farmers and gardeners here in Northwest Missouri, partially due to the large-scale pattern shift from El Nino to La Nina currently taking place across the Northern Hemisphere.
